Forget trying to pick a straightforward favourite for Sunday’s World Championship road race – the Montreal route is one that will punish anyone who gets the tactics wrong.

And there’s no Pogi.

Even those taking part in it are finding it hard to call.

Remco Evenepoel has warned that the repeated climbing will make life difficult for the heavier riders. “With the way the longer climb is ridden, it is really difficult for the heavier guys.”

But the Belgian also points out that the Worlds aren’t simply the GP de Montréal repeated for 12 laps. There are roughly 100 kilometres of flatter racing before the circuit, and a much longer total distance.

“The race is much longer, so it will be less explosive towards the end and come down more to endurance.”

That potentially brings Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel back into the equation.

Van Aert’s coach Mathieu Heijboer, has already taken the covers off of Van Aert’s race strategy.

“If Wout waits until the final lap and then tries to follow Remco, Seixas or Del Toro, it is not realistic for him to compete for the world title.”

Heijboer believes a more tactical race, with an early break, is the way to go.

Looking at the strengths of the various squads, former pro Jens Voigt is backing Belgium.

“The Belgians are for me the big favourites and the team to beat.”

Voigt’s own pick is Evenepoel, while he sees Seixas as a medal contender and Del Toro as his “hot outsider”.

French national coach Thomas Voeckler, meanwhile, has put a little cold water on the Seixas hype.

“Remco is stronger than Paul currently,” he said, and after the TT earlier this week his confidence will be high, but Seixas is the better climber – for that matter, so is Del Toro.

Voeckler also pointed out Evenepoel’s mental strength.

“Remco is a winner. I like his temperament, his way of racing.”

The added issue for the best of the rest is that Belgium has both Evenepoel and Van Aert and if they combine will be vary hard to beat. Look for WVA to go early once they reach the loop, hope to hang on as long as he can, and then for Remco to attack if and when his teammate is pulled back. Not many teams have the firepower to burn through riders chasing down a WVA attack, and if he times it right, it will mean that the Seixas, Del Toro and VDP will have to work.

Eurosport commentator and former pro Bobbie Traksel puts it bluntly:

“With two contenders and that whole team around them, you can’t say anything other than that Belgium is the best team.”

With all eyes on Remco, could this be Van Aert’s rainbow moment?

“Wout van Aert would be the most beautiful winner for me, says Traskel.”

And I tell you what, he’d be a fine World Champion. What he said after winning Roubaix, beating Pogacar in the velodrome, will stay with me for a long time – if you’ve not heard it, this is it:

The producers of the world’s finest beers might not get it all their own way however. Eurosport commentator Jeroen Vanbelleghem expects France to take the fight to Belgium.“The French will dynamite the race. They have no choice but to make the race, because otherwise they won’t win.”

Then there is Isaac del Toro, who has already beaten Paul Seixas on this terrain. He hasn’t got any powerful teammates to help him but he is absolutely still a main contender. He and Seixas might just fancy their chances with a cheeky breakaway towards the last 20km, hoping the others will hesitate.

Tom Pidcock has identified the two young riders as the favourites:

“The two stand-outs are Del Toro and Seixas.”

Seixas himself has been talking the talk.

“Our ambition is simple: we want to win that title. Given my form, anything other than gold would really be a disappointment.

Evenepoel. Van Aert. Van der Poel. Del Toro. Seixas. Could it be anyone outside of these 5? I very much doubt it.

And what of VDP’s chances? Not many mentions for him, but to underestimate the Dutchman would be a colossal mistake.

Van der Poel himself has admitted the course is close to the limit for him, particularly because of the repeated climbing – but he also has a possible route to victory, which is to make the race so darn hard that everyone is past their own limits. His usual MO!

His preparation has been interesting. He skipped the Québec/Montréal double and instead taking on a longer training block before the Tour of Luxembourg, where he then produced that extraordinary 174 km solo win. He said afterwards that he had “incredible legs”.

“You never know at a championship,” he said recently, “and it doesn’t necessarily have to happen on that climb. You always have to race.”

There is also an important tactical factor: no race radios. Van der Poel specifically identified that as something which could make the Worlds different from a normal one-day race and create opportunities for riders willing to improvise. I just love the idea of the others meeting him at the start line, shaking hands and thinking ‘oh, this guy, shit..!’

They know exactly what he will do, and there’s no way of stopping it – get on the train or get blown out, those are the only options!

My take: Seixas wins solo. Del Toro second and WVA 3rd.

Should be fun to watch it unfold!

The race starts at 9am Montreal time, Sunday 27th and will be live on the UCI’s YT channel, and on BBC iPlayer.